Question

How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?

Resolved :240

6 comments6

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction203

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>6k

...

109.2

202.8

297.5

0.3%

What was the final result?240

Community Baseline Score

94.3

Community Peer Score

49.5

Authors:

indigo

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Qatar)

Israel

Palestinian prisoners of Israel

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

16%

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

indigo

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Qatar)

Israel

Palestinian prisoners of Israel

‘I Managed To Survive’: Freed Israeli Hostages Recount Captivity Nearly One Year After Oct. 7

Daily Caller•Oct 4, 2024

A year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, 4 Americans are still being held hostage

USA Today•Oct 6, 2024

Israeli mother pleads for return of son held captive by Hamas a year after Oct. 7 attack

PBS NewsHour•Oct 7, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

16%

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

90%

MetaculusM

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How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

Comments

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?