Question

Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?

Resolved :No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters232

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.3

Community Peer Score

8.5

median 1.0%mean 2.7%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Yom Kippur War

Hamas

Israel

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Yom Kippur War

Hamas

Israel

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Netanyahu, Trump Discuss Iran as Israel Hits Targets in Lebanon, Gaza

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

Iran-linked attacks against US skyrocket by 600% since Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel: report

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

Iran military heads vow 'crushing' response to Israel as UN atomic chief says nuke sites shouldn't be attacked

FOX News•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%