Question

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?

Resolved :No1%

34 comments34

Total Forecasters179

Community Prediction1% (0.4% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

32.8

Community Peer Score

33.8

Authors:

RyanBeck NMorrison

Opened:

Oct 9, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2024

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Six-Day War

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

2006 Palestinian legislative election

IDF Inquiry: Israel Underestimated Hamas Threat; Thought Sinwar a ‘Pragmatist’

Breitbart•Feb 28, 2025

Israel's army underestimated Hamas' capabilities before Oct. 7 attack that sparked war in Gaza, probe finds

CBS•Feb 28, 2025

Hamas ready to cede control of Gaza, official says

NBC•Feb 28, 2025

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10%

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