Question

Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.5

Community Peer Score

15.1

median 1.0%mean 5.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Iran-linked attacks against US skyrocket by 600% since Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel: report

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

Netanyahoo Knew The Attack Was Coming

Lew Rockwell•Nov 15, 2024

Could Biden copy Obama with December surprise at UN to punish Israel's Netanyahu?

FOX News•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

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