Question

Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?

Resolved :No1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction1% (0.3% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.5

Community Peer Score

15.1

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 23, 2024

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Israel’s Shin Bet says October 7 attack could have been prevented as it admits fault and casts blame

CNN•Mar 5, 2025

In Oct. 7 Report, Israeli Security Agency Puts Some Blame on Netanyahu Government

New York Times•Mar 5, 2025

What went wrong? Israel's spy agency lists failures in preventing Oct. 7 attack

NPR Online News•Mar 5, 2025

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