Question

Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?

Resolved :No1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction1% (0.3% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.5

Community Peer Score

15.1

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Hamas Official: ‘October 7 Ruined Us’

Breitbart•Dec 16, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Will Israel Attack Iran Next?

AntiWar•Dec 16, 2024

“7 countries in 5 years”: Regime change in Iran coming soon?

Strategic Culture•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

0.9%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

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