62 comments
163 forecasters
When will we have transformative AI?
Current estimate
Oct 2041
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023
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How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.4 years
(-1.56 - 13.9)
3.4 years
(-1.56 - 13.9)
65 forecasters
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Nov 2053
(Jan 2036 - 2104)
Nov 2053
(Jan 2036 - 2104)
114 forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
7 forecasters