Question

Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?

Resolved :No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

40.3

Community Peer Score

30.0

median 1.0%mean 5.2%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

13%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024? → 1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Israel Targets Hezbollah's Finances as Strikes Hit Beirut Suburbs

Newsweek•Oct 21, 2024

Israel's war with Iran-backed Hezbollah escalates as IDF bombs financial institutions across Lebanon

CBS•Oct 21, 2024

Middle East latest: Hezbollah fires rockets into central Israel

Associated Press•Oct 22, 2024

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Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

13%