Question

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction23.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23.2%

median 23.2%mean 24.7%

Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

Cascadia subduction zone

1700 Cascadia earthquake

West Coast Storm Warning for 3 States Mapped As Gale-Force Winds Forecast

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

'Bomb Cyclone' Set To Explode off US West Coast

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Atmospheric Rivers in the Northwest

•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

2043-02-21

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

Cascadia subduction zone

1700 Cascadia earthquake

West Coast Storm Warning for 3 States Mapped As Gale-Force Winds Forecast

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

'Bomb Cyclone' Set To Explode off US West Coast

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Atmospheric Rivers in the Northwest

•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

2043-02-21

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%