Question

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction23.2% (15% - 33%)

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50%

community: 23.2%

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Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

Cascadia subduction zone

1700 Cascadia earthquake

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Massive 7.3-magnitude Vanuatu earthquake triggers tsunami warnings

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

2043-02-21

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

Cascadia subduction zone

1700 Cascadia earthquake

Atmospheric River Forecast: Rain, Snow To Hit Before Christmas

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Atmospheric Rivers Set to Dramatically Change Up and Down West Coast

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Massive 7.3-magnitude Vanuatu earthquake triggers tsunami warnings

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

2043-02-21

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

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Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

Make a Prediction

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

Comments

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?