Question

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

24.5%

(19% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24.5%

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Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Nov 3, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 13, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 6, 2023

Cascadia subduction zone

United States

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

1700 Cascadia earthquake

Underwater volcano off Oregon coast ‘ballooning’ with lava — and set to erupt for first time since 2015

New York Post•May 10, 2025

Major US volcano predicted to erupt TOMORROW

Daily Mail•May 10, 2025

Axial Seamount: Why This Pacific Underwater Volcano Is Being Watched Closely By Scientists

Forbes•May 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

May 2043

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Nov 3, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 13, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 6, 2023

Cascadia subduction zone

United States

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

1700 Cascadia earthquake

Underwater volcano off Oregon coast ‘ballooning’ with lava — and set to erupt for first time since 2015

New York Post•May 10, 2025

Major US volcano predicted to erupt TOMORROW

Daily Mail•May 10, 2025

Axial Seamount: Why This Pacific Underwater Volcano Is Being Watched Closely By Scientists

Forbes•May 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

May 2043

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

Make a Prediction

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

Comments

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

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