Question

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction24.5% (19% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24.5%

Authors:

MontyJ

Opened:

Nov 3, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 13, 2034

Cascadia subduction zone

United States

Geology of the Pacific Northwest

1700 Cascadia earthquake

California gripped by fear the Big One is coming as yet another tremor rocks San Francisco Bay Area

Daily Mail•Feb 14, 2025

Flurry of earthquakes hit two states as scientists fear a 'Big One' is coming

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Could California Face 'Big One' Earthquake Soon?

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

When will the next Nankai megathrust earthquake occur?

2043-07-07

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

Comments

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