Question

Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?

Resolved :No0.4%

68 comments68

Total Forecasters196

Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

6.2

Authors:

Kaleem

Opened:

Oct 18, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2024

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

United Nations Security Council

Gaza City

Israel Defense Forces

Five Eyes

Hamas

Israel

Israel’s Shin Bet says October 7 attack could have been prevented as it admits fault and casts blame

CNN•Mar 5, 2025

In Oct. 7 Report, Israeli Security Agency Puts Some Blame on Netanyahu Government

New York Times•Mar 5, 2025

What went wrong? Israel's spy agency lists failures in preventing Oct. 7 attack

NPR Online News•Mar 5, 2025

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