Question

Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?

Resolved :Yes

59 comments59

Total Forecasters160

Community Prediction85%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

20.1

Community Peer Score

9.7

median 85.0%mean 82.0%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Israel Defense Forces

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Israel

Death toll in Gaza from Israel-Hamas war passes 44,000, Palestinian officials say

Associated Press•Nov 22, 2024

Gaza Death Toll Hits 44,000 in Israel-Hamas War, Officials Say

Newsweek•Nov 22, 2024

Shelling Near Lebanon UN Peacekeepers HQ as Israeli Forces Battle Hezbollah

Newsweek•Nov 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

17%

Comments

? comments