Question

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction2025-04

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2024-01

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2049-12

...

12.4%

2024-07

2025-04

2026-06

0.1%

Authors:

LordNPython

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Europe

Artificial intelligence

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-03

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

LordNPython

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Europe

Artificial intelligence

The Improvisational Nature of LLMs and Human Thought

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

OpenAI’s DevDay brings Realtime API and other treats for AI app developers

TechCrunch•Oct 2, 2024

OpenAI raises $6.6B and is now valued at $157B

TechCrunch•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-03

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

Make a Prediction

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

Comments

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?