🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

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Make a Prediction

US Iran War Before 2025?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

50%
community: 45%
The question "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030)" resolves.
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Community Prediction29.2%43.4%57.6%Nov 13Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31Jan 04Jan 08
Authors:
Opened:Oct 23, 2023
Closed:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030

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