Question

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?

Resolved :No

82 comments82

Total Forecasters402

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.9

Community Peer Score

1.3

median 0.1%mean 0.4%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

0.1%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

97%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

Comments

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