Question

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?

Resolved :No

82 comments82

Total Forecasters402

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.9

Community Peer Score

1.3

median 0.1%mean 0.4%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

90%

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

No 'indications' Israel plans to nuke Iran in retaliation for missile bombardment: Chilling indication of how large-scale Netanyahu's revenge strike could be is revealed in leaked documents

Daily Mail•Oct 21, 2024

Iran prepares for full-scale war with Israel: Ayatollah orders military to plan for attack if Netanyahu gives green light to hit major sites in response to missile barrage

Daily Mail•Oct 25, 2024

Will Iran Go to War With Israel? What We Know

Newsweek•Oct 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

90%