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🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

conditional
condition

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

if yes
if no

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

5%
5%

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

1%
1%
6
1

Make a Prediction

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

community: 5%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Conditional Cup
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Anthropic
Master of Laws
OpenAI

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