M

conditional
condition

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

Resolved :No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

3%
3%
Resolved :Annulled3%

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

1%
1%
Resolved :No0.5%
5
1

Make a Prediction

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

50%
community: 3%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:Nov 23, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Conditional Cup
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Anthropic
Master of Laws
OpenAI

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