Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here β€” $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?

Resolved :Yes99.4%
7
7
Total Forecasters131
Community Prediction99.4% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99.4%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
93.9
Community Peer Score
8.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
πŸ† Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup πŸ†
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
Speaker of the US House of Representatives
Kevin McCarthy (California politician)
Mike Johnson (Louisiana politician)
Elections in the United States
Israel
Republican Party (US)

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