Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack?

5
25
62 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 53

Make a Prediction

Typeresolution
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>200
1.265
2.841
5.259
0.1%

What was the final result?4

Community Baseline Score
127.9
Community Peer Score
26.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Qatar
The Times of Israel
Gaza Strip
Hamas
Israel
Egypt

Comments

? comments