📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

9
16
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction2029-10-05 (2028-06-20 - 2029-11-19)

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
2028-06-20 20:39
2029-10-05 10:45
2029-11-19 08:21
Authors:
TNTOutburst
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Law
Politics
United States District Court for the District of Columbia
Stormy Daniels
Florida
United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida
2020 US presidential election
Georgia (U.S. state)
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
New York (state)
Washington, D.C.

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