Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No1%
5
3
Total Forecasters147
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
94.4
Community Peer Score
5.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
Ty Cobb (attorney)
Florida
Georgia (U.S. state)
The Trump Organization
Donald Trump
New York (state)
Washington, D.C.

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