Question

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus?

Resolved :Annulled50%

28 comments28

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction50% (40% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Nov 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

Human Rights Watch says Israel’s restriction of water supply in Gaza amounts to acts of genocide

Associated Press•Jan 31, 2025

HRW accuses Israel of 'acts of genocide' for restricting Gaza water access

Raw Story•Jan 31, 2025

Israel committing ‘acts of genocide’ by cutting off water in Gaza, HRW says

Al Jazeera•Feb 1, 2025

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Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Nov 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

Human Rights Watch says Israel’s restriction of water supply in Gaza amounts to acts of genocide

Associated Press•Jan 31, 2025

HRW accuses Israel of 'acts of genocide' for restricting Gaza water access

Raw Story•Jan 31, 2025

Israel committing ‘acts of genocide’ by cutting off water in Gaza, HRW says

Al Jazeera•Feb 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

45%

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15%