📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

conditional

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

if yes

if no

USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?

USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?

Resolved :Annulled6%

2

Make a Prediction

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 26%

The question "Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution

North Atlantic Treaty

US Electoral College

Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution

North Atlantic Treaty

US Electoral College

Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance