Question

Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

Resolved :No0.1%

19 comments19

Total Forecasters119

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.7

Community Peer Score

51.7

Authors:

RyanBeck NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Nov 7, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Chemical Weapons Convention

White phosphorus munitions

Human Rights Watch says Israel’s restriction of water supply in Gaza amounts to acts of genocide

Associated Press•Jan 31, 2025

HRW accuses Israel of 'acts of genocide' for restricting Gaza water access

Raw Story•Jan 31, 2025

Israel committing ‘acts of genocide’ by cutting off water in Gaza, HRW says

Al Jazeera•Feb 1, 2025

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