Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

Resolved :No1.5%
9
24
Total Forecasters135
Community Prediction1.5% (1% - 2.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
93.4
Community Peer Score
13.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Global Pulse Tournament
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Egypt

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