Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?

Resolved :Above upper bound2023-12-15
5
13
Total Forecasters54
Community Prediction2023-12-15 (2023-12-15 - 2023-12-15)

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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2023-12-15
...
...
...
...
>2023-12-15 00:00
>2023-12-15 00:00
>2023-12-15 00:00
98.1%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
127.2
Community Peer Score
31.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Natural Sciences
2023 Leaderboard
Iceland
Southern Peninsula (Iceland)
US Geological Survey
Hydropower
North American Plate
Blue Lagoon (geothermal spa)
Reykjavík
Grindavík
UTC±00:00

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