Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :No0.1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.0

Community Peer Score

5.3

Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Nov 17, 2023

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2025

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2024 Elections (US)

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

The Current Democrat Cures Are Placebos, but It Won’t Matter in the End

Red State•Jan 27, 2025

Fox News Poll: Voters view 2024 negatively but have hope for the future

FOX News•Jan 29, 2025

Something Big Just Happened in a Crucial Swing State

Townhall•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2084-03-14

Comments

? comments