Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

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Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.1%)

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50%

community: 0.1%

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02