Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

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Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.1%)

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50%

community: 0.1%

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Fox News Poll: Voters view 2024 negatively but have hope for the future

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02

Comments

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Fox News Poll: Voters view 2024 negatively but have hope for the future

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02