Question

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.4

Community Peer Score

3.6

median 0.1%mean 2.2%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

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