Question

By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?

Resolved :No11%

15 comments15

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction11% (5% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

10.5

Community Peer Score

21.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Leber congenital amaurosis

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Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

2054-06-06

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