Question

By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?

Resolved :No11%

15 comments15

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction11% (5% - 20%)

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50%

community: 11%

Did this actually happen?No

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10.5

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21.9

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Leber congenital amaurosis

Mirror bacteria may constitute ‘radical departure from known life,’ scientists warn

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Global Health Risk Posed by 'Mirror Bacteria'

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

2054-06-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Leber congenital amaurosis

Mirror bacteria may constitute ‘radical departure from known life,’ scientists warn

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Global Health Risk Posed by 'Mirror Bacteria'

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

2054-06-06

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?

Make a Prediction

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Comments

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?