OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

conditional

condition

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)

Resolved :Yes

3 forecasters

if yes

if no

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

11%

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

13%

Resolved :Annulled

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Make a Prediction

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)	OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 11%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

0.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman thanks Elon Musk for helping to initially bankroll OpenAI — and says now is a great time for tech founders

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

Greg Brockman, a key Sam Altman ally, returns to OpenAI following an exodus of top executives

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

Sam Altman says 'there is no wall' in an apparent response to fears of an AI slowdown

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

0.4%