OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

conditional

condition

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)

Resolved :Yes

3 forecasters

if yes

if no

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

11%

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

13%

Resolved :Annulled12.5%

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Make a Prediction

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)	OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 11%

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

OpenAI shakeup has rocked Silicon Valley, leaving some techies concerned about future of AI

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI’s Decision to Fire and Rehire Sam Altman Sparks Controversy; Raises Questions

•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI Disbands Superalignment Team After Key Resignations

•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

OpenAI shakeup has rocked Silicon Valley, leaving some techies concerned about future of AI

CNBC•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI’s Decision to Fire and Rehire Sam Altman Sparks Controversy; Raises Questions

•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI Disbands Superalignment Team After Key Resignations

•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

0.1%

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Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Make a Prediction

Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Forecast Timeline

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

Comments

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027? → Human Extinction by 2100

Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?