Question

Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?

Resolved :Yes99%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

7.8

Community Peer Score

1.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

rationalTrader

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2014 Israel–Gaza conflict

Negotiators say Israel and Hamas are inching toward a ceasefire deal. This is what it may look like

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Israel defence minister says country is 'the closest it's been' to a Gaza hostage deal with Hamas since last year - as talks keep moving around ceasefire

Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

Israeli and Hamas Officials Say a Hostage Deal Is Close

AntiWar•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

17%

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

97%

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