25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

conditional

condition

Novel Pathogen in China November 2023?

Resolved :No

14 forecasters

if yes

if no

25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

Resolved :Annulled

25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

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Novel Pathogen in China November 2023?	25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 5%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024 → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Comments

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

WHO warns of measles resurgence as cases exceed 10 million in 2023

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Bird Flu Outbreak: Do Human Cases Mean Future Lockdowns?

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Eight killed and 17 injured in mass stabbing in eastern China

CNN•Nov 16, 2024

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