Question

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Resolved :No1%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

55.6

Community Peer Score

31.0

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Shanghai

China

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Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

78.6%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Shanghai

China

Nvidia Stock May Fall As DeepSeek’s ‘Amazing’ AI Model Disrupts OpenAI

Forbes•Jan 26, 2025

Has DeepSeek popped the AI bubble?

Spectator (UK)•Jan 28, 2025

How U.S. efforts to restrict China from Nvidia's fastest chips may have backfired

CNBC•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

78.6%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%