Question

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

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Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

median 66.0%mean 60.1%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

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Scheduled resolution:

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

20%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

85%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Chipmakers urged to leverage AI edge in tackling uncertainties

Korea Herald•Nov 7, 2024

TSMC To Double Production Based On Nvidia Numbers And Overall Demand

Forbes•Nov 8, 2024

In Fencing China Out is Washington Fencing Itself In?

CounterPunch•Nov 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

20%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

85%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%