Question

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

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Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction68% (60.4% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

78.6%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

2028-12-04

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