Question

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

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Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction68% (60.4% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

What is high bandwidth memory and why is the US trying to block China’s access to it?

CNN•Dec 9, 2024

Biden launched a US chipmaking boom. The jobs boost will come under Trump.

Business Insider•Dec 9, 2024

China is probing Nvidia in a major escalation of its chip war with the US

CNN•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

20%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

83%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Comments

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

What is high bandwidth memory and why is the US trying to block China’s access to it?

CNN•Dec 9, 2024

Biden launched a US chipmaking boom. The jobs boost will come under Trump.

Business Insider•Dec 9, 2024

China is probing Nvidia in a major escalation of its chip war with the US

CNN•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

20%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

83%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

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Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?