Question

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

no comments0

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

80%

(75% - 91%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2033

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

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Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

Oct 2028

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2033

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Alibaba-affiliate Ant combines Chinese and U.S. chips to slash AI development costs

CNBC•Mar 24, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Mar 22, 2025

GTC felt more bullish than ever, but Nvidia’s challenges are piling up

TechCrunch•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

Oct 2028