Question

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

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Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction80% (75% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2033

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Strategic Culture•Feb 12, 2025

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Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

What changes to the CHIPS act could mean for AI growth and consumers

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

78.6%

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

2028-12-04

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2033

China’s unstoppable STEM army

Strategic Culture•Feb 12, 2025

DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech

Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

What changes to the CHIPS act could mean for AI growth and consumers

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

78.6%

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

2028-12-04