📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

7
4
13 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Quarterresolution
Quarter25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
<5
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50
7.8%
9.764
13.94
18.35
0.1%

What was the final result?9.56

Community Baseline Score
-6.3
Community Peer Score
36.6

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
DerMannOhneEigenschaften
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Chinese AI Chips
AI in China
Computing and Math
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Baidu
Huawei
China
Electronics
Machine learning
Semiconductor Chip Protection Act of 1984
Computer hardware
Economy of China
Nvidia

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