Question

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

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Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction72%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 72%

median 72.0%mean 71.7%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will Samsung team up with foundry rival TSMC?

Korea Herald•Nov 13, 2024

Intel is far from becoming the American chipmaking powerhouse the US needs

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Comments

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will Samsung team up with foundry rival TSMC?

Korea Herald•Nov 13, 2024

Intel is far from becoming the American chipmaking powerhouse the US needs

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

58.5%

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%