Question

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

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Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction70% (54% - 85%)

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50%

community: 70%

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DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

As Trump 2.0 looms, Taiwan’s chip industry braces for upheaval

Al Jazeera•Dec 19, 2024

5 Top Semiconductor Stocks To Buy For 2025

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

TSMC says first advanced U.S. chip fab 'dang near back' on schedule. Here’s an inside look

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

Comments

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Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

As Trump 2.0 looms, Taiwan’s chip industry braces for upheaval

Al Jazeera•Dec 19, 2024

5 Top Semiconductor Stocks To Buy For 2025

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

TSMC says first advanced U.S. chip fab 'dang near back' on schedule. Here’s an inside look

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

31.8%

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Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Comments

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?