Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?

6
5
8 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Quarterresolution
Quarter25thmedian75th
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5M
1.101M
1.461M
1.692M
0.1%

What was the final result?1.79M

Community Baseline Score
68.3
Community Peer Score
17.7
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:

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