Question
How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?
Resolved :11.88Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction1.88 (1.01 - 2.86)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 1.011 | — |
| median | 1.88 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.863 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?1
Community Baseline Score
102.8
Community Peer Score
35.0
Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2023
Closes:Feb 29, 2024
Resolves:Jun 3, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2023
Closes:Feb 29, 2024
Resolves:Jun 3, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch