Question

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction85%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

median 85.0%mean 83.7%

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

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Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

A.I. Safety Institute Defends the Future of U.S. Tech Policy as Trump’s New Era Looms

Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

How Trump’s AI Deregulation Could Reshape The Music Industry

Forbes•Nov 14, 2024

What Will Trump's New Term Mean for A.I.?

Newsweek•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

29.2%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?