Question

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction86% (81.1% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 86%

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Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

House AI task force says 'unreasonable' to expect immediate congressional action on AI in 250-page report

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Threat of ‘mass’ AI-powered government censorship is on the rise, ominous House panel report shows

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Experts praise long-awaited AI report from Congress: 'A thoughtful and forward-thinking framework'

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

29.2%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

House AI task force says 'unreasonable' to expect immediate congressional action on AI in 250-page report

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Threat of ‘mass’ AI-powered government censorship is on the rise, ominous House panel report shows

New York Post•Dec 19, 2024

Experts praise long-awaited AI report from Congress: 'A thoughtful and forward-thinking framework'

FOX News•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

29.2%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Make a Prediction

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?