Question

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

30%

(8.6% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Dec 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2023

Geopolitics

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

Ukraine cease-fire will send thousands of Russian troops to NATO borders, Baltic states warn

New York Post•Mar 31, 2025

Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Could Be up to 100,000: USGS

Newsweek•Mar 29, 2025

Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role

The Conversation•Mar 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

24%

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Dec 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2023

Geopolitics

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

Ukraine cease-fire will send thousands of Russian troops to NATO borders, Baltic states warn

New York Post•Mar 31, 2025

Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Could Be up to 100,000: USGS

Newsweek•Mar 29, 2025

Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role

The Conversation•Mar 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

24%

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

MetaculusM

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Make a Prediction

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Comments

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

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