MetaculusM

Question

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

2

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction30% (8.6% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2070

Russia, North Korea To Amass 150K-Strong Force on NATO's Doorstep: Zelensky

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

Russian Advances in Ukraine Slowing Down Despite Rise in Casualties: ISW

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Popular Revolt Looming in Ukraine? Zelensky’s Battle Over Death Numbers Speaks for Itself. 400,000 Soldiers - Global Research

Global Research•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2070

Russia, North Korea To Amass 150K-Strong Force on NATO's Doorstep: Zelensky

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

Russian Advances in Ukraine Slowing Down Despite Rise in Casualties: ISW

Newsweek•Feb 15, 2025

Popular Revolt Looming in Ukraine? Zelensky’s Battle Over Death Numbers Speaks for Itself. 400,000 Soldiers - Global Research

Global Research•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch