Frontier Open-Source AI? (2028)

conditional

condition

EU Regulations on Foundation Models?

Resolved :Yes

4 forecasters

if yes

if no

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2028)

50%

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2028)

50%

Resolved :Annulled

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EU Regulations on Foundation Models?	Frontier Open-Source AI? (2028)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 50%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

European Commission

European Union

European Parliament

AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

European Commission

European Union

European Parliament

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AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

30%