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When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

5,000 bases

10,000 bases

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Capability	25th	median	75th
5,000 bases	2027-09-13 ...	2028-10-06 ...	2030-03-01 ...
10,000 bases	2028-07-31 ...	2030-03-24 ...	2032-05-07 ...

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2040-01-01

...

2027-09-13 22:10

2028-10-06 06:09

2030-03-01 14:13

1.3%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

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Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

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How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Genetics

Synthetic biology

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27

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When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

Comments

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?