Group

When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?

23 comments23

6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

5,000 bases

10,000 bases

Make a Prediction

Capability

median

PDF

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

May 23, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Synthetic biology

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Founded by DeepMind alumnus, Latent Labs launches with $50M to make biology programmable

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

Enzymes are the engines of life − machine learning tools could help scientists design new ones to tackle disease and climate change

The Conversation•Feb 14, 2025

Scientists Can Now Recreate A Mouse Without Its DNA—Here’s How It Works

Forbes•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck maxslangenkamp

Opened:

May 23, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Nuclear Threat Initiative

Synthetic biology

Biochemistry

Biotechnology

Oligonucleotide synthesis

Artificial gene synthesis

DNA synthesis

Founded by DeepMind alumnus, Latent Labs launches with $50M to make biology programmable

TechCrunch•Feb 13, 2025

Enzymes are the engines of life − machine learning tools could help scientists design new ones to tackle disease and climate change

The Conversation•Feb 14, 2025

Scientists Can Now Recreate A Mouse Without Its DNA—Here’s How It Works

Forbes•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?

If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?

189k

When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?

2044-10-27