Question

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

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Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction95%

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community: 95%

median 95.0%mean 92.4%

Authors:

will_aldred fist

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Scheduled resolution:

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

31%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

31%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?