Question

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Resolved :Yes50%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction50% (22.1% - 75%)

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community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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Authors:

will_aldred fist

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Closes:

Resolves:

Report: China’s ByteDance Flaunts U.S. Sanctions with Plan to Spend $7 Billion ‘Renting’ AI Chips

Breitbart•Jan 3, 2025

Nvidia Stock Vs. Custom AI Chips: Should Investors Worry?

Forbes•Jan 3, 2025

Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers over next 12 months

NBC•Jan 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Report: China’s ByteDance Flaunts U.S. Sanctions with Plan to Spend $7 Billion ‘Renting’ AI Chips

Breitbart•Jan 3, 2025

Nvidia Stock Vs. Custom AI Chips: Should Investors Worry?

Forbes•Jan 3, 2025

Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers over next 12 months

NBC•Jan 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

MetaculusM

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?