Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

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Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction53.8%

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50%

community: 53.8%

median 53.8%mean 58.6%

Authors:

will_aldred fist

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List of largest China-based law firms by revenue

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

33%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

24%

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? comments

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

List of largest China-based law firms by revenue

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Wired•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

33%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

24%