Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

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Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction71% (53% - 74%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 71%

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

55%

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