Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

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Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction25%

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50%

community: 25%

median 25.0%mean 28.8%

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will_aldred fist

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Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

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Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

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Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%