Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction25%

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50%

community: 25%

median 25.0%mean 28.8%

Authors:

will_aldred fist

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Amazon attempts to lure AI researchers with $110M in grants and credits

TechCrunch•Nov 12, 2024

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

It’s Not Too Late to Stop the Monopolization of AI

CounterPunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Amazon attempts to lure AI researchers with $110M in grants and credits

TechCrunch•Nov 12, 2024

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

It’s Not Too Late to Stop the Monopolization of AI

CounterPunch•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

15%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%