Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Resolved :No15%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction15% (5% - 27.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

40.4

Community Peer Score

1.8

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Scale AI’s 28-Year-Old Billionaire CEO Warns About This Scarily Good Chinese Startup

Observer (NY)•Jan 25, 2025

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

China’s DeepSeek Surprise

Atlantic•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Comments

? comments