M

conditional
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Closed
20 forecasters
if yes
if no

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

54%
54%

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

40%
40%
3
10

Make a Prediction

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

50%
community: 54%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
Dumbledores_Army
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
2024 Electoral Consequences
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
List of states with nuclear weapons
China
United Kingdom
India
International Atomic Energy Agency
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
Pakistan
France
United States

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