Question

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction25% (15% - 33.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 11, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

90%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

66%

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