Question

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction29.2% (18% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29.2%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Donald Trump

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•Dec 17, 2024

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Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

86%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Donald Trump

How Trump's Proposed Radical Expansion of Executive Power Will Impact Our Freedoms

•Dec 17, 2024

What does Big Tech hope to gain from warming up to Trump?

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

NBC•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

86%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?