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By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

52 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2050	97.5%

2040	90%

2035	86%

2030	66.7%

2025	1%

Forecast Timeline

2050

2040

2035

2030

2025

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Chatbot

OpenAI

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-05-07

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

80%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Chatbot

OpenAI

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When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-05-07

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

80%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?