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By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

14 comments14

Forecast Timeline

2050

2040

2035

2030

2025

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2050	96%

2040	90%

2035	85%

2030	66%

2025	1%

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Metaculus

Chatbot

OpenAI

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

83%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

blednotik

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Metaculus

Chatbot

OpenAI

SoftBank to Invest $500M in OpenAI for the First Time—Is It Late to the Party?

Observer (NY)•Oct 1, 2024

‘Comfortable, fun, familiar’: Microsoft’s bid to make its AI chatbot more enjoyable to talk to

CNN•Oct 1, 2024

AI and the Human Mind: Uncovering the Machine "Unconscious"

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

83%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?